The first month of President Trump’s administration has been action-packed. We pause here to look at the impact his initial actions are likely to have on the dairy community, particularly as it relates to immigration/labor supply, environmental regulations and trade.
Immigration
The executive order that garnered the most attention deals with immigration, but it would have little impact on dairy farmers. This order would ban Syrian refugees and temporarily freeze the admission of people from seven countries in the Middle East and North Africa. While some Wisconsin dairies have hired refugees, that is unusual. None of the nationalities implicated by the order have a significant community in Wisconsin. Additionally, this order is currently on hold pending the outcome of a legal challenge.
In another order, Trump calls on federal agencies to begin planning for the construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. This same order calls for hiring 5,000 new border patrol agents. A separate order calls for hiring 10,000 new Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. While these orders may start the planning process for all three of these actions, full implementation would require appropriations from Congress.
Yet another of the president’s executive orders also focuses on increasing deportations and penalizing so-called sanctuary cities. The order does prioritize those who should be targeted for deportation, starting with anyone convicted or charged with a crime.
Deportations are not limited to undocumented immigrants. People with proper work authorization can still be removed if they have certain types of criminal records, and this is not limited to felonies.
To help facilitate these deportations, President Trump has endorsed broader use of an existing statutory provision that allows federal officials to enter into agreements with local law enforcement agencies. Under these agreements, local police would receive special training, after which they would be able to perform some of the same functions as an ICE agent.
Regulations
Regarding regulations, the president has imposed a federal hiring and contracting freeze for almost all federal agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency. He has frozen all regulations now in process, which means any regulation approved by former President Obama during the last weeks of his administration is on hold until the new administration reviews it.
A separate executive order would require all federal agencies to identify two federal regulations that could be repealed for every new regulation they seek to implement. This is a novel idea, but it could make it hard to implement some beneficial legislation that is still waiting on pending rule-making.
Trade
Finally, when it comes to trade, President Trump has pulled the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Most agricultural advocacy groups, including dairy organizations, favored ratification of TPP with the belief that it would meaningfully improve market access for agricultural exports.
The president has also signaled a desire to potentially renegotiate aspects of the North American Free Trade Agreement, although most significant changes to that agreement would require congressional approval.
While the president’s trade policy eschews large multilateral agreements, he has already begun exploring the possibility of smaller bilateral agreements, such as one that could be struck with the United Kingdom as it moves toward leaving the European Union.
The pace of change under President Trump has been impressive. Still, much of the execution of his initial executive orders will take time, and some rely on congressional action that may never come. Regardless of the outcomes, Washington watchers will have no shortage of things to discuss during the next 47 months.
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